Saturday, February 06, 2016

Pakistan's energy crisis

http://www.technologyreview.pk/pakistans-energy-crisis-the-real-story/
Graphs and illustrations.

http://www.technologyreview.pk/demystifying-pakistans-energy-crisis/
"Looking at 2014-15 figures, Pakistan’s total energy mix is: – Thermal, 65 percent; hydropower, 31.5 percent; nuclear, 3 percent; wind and solar, 0.5 percent. The public sector’s contribution is 58.5 percent in this mix including thermal (fossil fuels and nuclear) and hydropower, while private sector’s thermal (fossil fuels), hydropower and wind energy is 41.5 percent. Breaking this down further, public sector contributes 31 percent from hydropower, 25 percent from Gencos, 3 percent from nuclear while private sector IPPs contribute 40 percent from thermal, 0.5 percent from wind and only 1 percent from hydropower generation. By the way, nuclear energy is also a form of thermal energy; therefore, Pakistan’s current energy mix relies on 68 percent thermal energy resources and only 32 percent from renewable resources like hydropower, solar and wind when all is said and done."

http://www.dawn.com/news/1171392
"There are three main issues that need to be addressed if the power disaster is to be resolved:
1. Affordability: The energy source mix and tariff resultant from average production cost should be affordable to the consumer.
2. Reduction of losses: Bills collection must be improved as must the reduction of line losses, which are currently running at over 15 and 30 per cent respectively.
3. Lesser reliance on imported fuel: This is vital to prevent potential foreign exchange losses due to depreciation of the Pakistani Rupee.
According to NEPRA, an SDPI study mentions a figure of Rs 8 / unit as the maximum price the average Pakistani would be willing to pay for power, and that they are willing to tolerate prolonged loadshedding if the power cost went above that; thus an elastic demand.
In terms of energy source mix, Pakistan has one of the most expensive power generation costs in the world, with over-reliance on expensive furnace oil.
.....
The genesis of Pakistan's heavy reliance on expensive imported furnace oil lies in the Private Power Policy of 1994, chalked up during Benazir Bhutto's second term in government.
This policy was probably the most crippling economic decision taken in the last 30 years by any government. To date, this decision is estimated to have cost the country over $2 billion per year since 2006.
http://www.dawn.com/news/1195871
"xperts believe Pakistan’s energy crisis may have a solution in coal or gas. Thar coal is being touted as the answer to Pakistan’s power crisis. Thar’s 175 billion tons of coal reserves have given several authors in the book the hope for a long-lasting solution. I admire their optimism.
However, in earlier writings for the Dawn, I had shown that when it comes to Thar, we may be counting our chickens before they hatched. Only 2.7 out of the 175 billion tonnes of Thar coal are categorised as measured (proven) coal reserves. The rest of the reserves (172 billion tonnes) fall under hypothetical (undiscovered), inferred, and indicated category.
Other experts believe that despite there being a shortfall in Pakistan of two billion cubic feet, natural gas offers the potential to generate electricity at affordable costs. Also, almost 11 per cent of natural gas remains unaccounted for in Pakistan.
The recent agreement between Iran and Western powers opens the possibility to build a gas pipeline to Iran and link it with India and China. The recent Chinese announcement of $35 billion investment in power infrastructure in Pakistan has earmarked loans for the Pak-Iran-China gas pipeline. Cheaper gas may mean affordable electricity for Pakistan."

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